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DENSO Corporation (DNZOF)

NEUTRAL
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsJapan

基本面

66

价格

$1921.50

市值

$4.87T

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

DENSO makes the components that go inside cars rather than complete vehicles: air-conditioning and thermal-management systems, engine and powertrain parts, electronics, electrification hardware like inverters and motors, and semiconductors. It is headquartered in Japan and supplies carmakers worldwide, with Toyota — also its largest shareholder — as its single biggest customer by a wide margin.

盈利方式

DENSO sells parts as an original-equipment supplier under contracts tied to specific vehicle models, so revenue tracks how many cars carmakers actually build and how much content DENSO wins on each one. Prices are negotiated per component and typically decline over a model's life under automakers' cost-reduction pressure, so DENSO depends on new wins and efficiency gains to protect margins.

需求驱动因素

周期性

DENSO's revenue follows global vehicle production, which rises and falls with consumer confidence, credit conditions and automakers' own inventory cycles. Because contracts are tied to specific models, a model's production cut or delay shows up directly in DENSO's results with little lag.

主要风险

  • Dependence on Toyota group sales — DENSO discloses that fluctuations in Toyota group sales could materially affect its performance, even though it states it negotiates terms with Toyota group companies on the same basis as with other customers.
  • Semiconductor and supply-chain fragility — Recent shortages of automotive semiconductors exposed how dependent DENSO's production is on a resilient global supply chain; a disruption at a chip or raw-material supplier can constrain output across several of its product lines at once.
  • Competition in electrification components — As electrification becomes central to vehicle powertrains, DENSO faces rivals such as LG Magna e-Powertrain and CATL in inverters and battery-related systems, an area where it does not hold the same long incumbency it has in traditional components.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的48.6%

For the fiscal year ended March 2026, sales to the Toyota group accounted for 48.6% of DENSO's net sales, according to the company's own related-party disclosure. Toyota also holds roughly 22% of DENSO's voting rights.

看多理由

Buyers argue that DENSO's decades-long relationships with Toyota and other carmakers give it a stable base of contracted volume, and that its shift toward electrification, safety and semiconductor content lets it grow revenue per vehicle even as overall car production stays flat.

看空理由

Sellers fear that near-half dependence on a single customer group leaves DENSO exposed to Toyota's own production decisions, that new electrification rivals lack the cost-down pressure of legacy component businesses, and that a global auto downturn would hit DENSO with little room to diversify away from it.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$7.54T

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$440.53B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$76.84B

股东权益合计

$5.49T

负债合计

$3.02T

流动比率

2.09

利息覆盖率

17.41

债务/EBITDA

1.32

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被低估

公允价值

$3874.49

当前价格

$1921.50

安全边际

+50.4%

公允价值区间

$2518.42 - $5230.56

估算方法

Analyst Target:$2124.44
DCF:$7348.85
PE-based:$1739.66
Graham Growth:$8385.58
EPV:$1716.37
分析师共识:买入 (12B / 12H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+10.07%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

11.86

ROE

8.1%

市净率(P/B)

0.95

P/FCF

67.99

毛利率

15.5%

ROIC

6.5%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.5%

WACC

7.5%

ROIC − WACC

-1.1 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 16.15%
  • ROIC 6.5%
  • P/B Ratio 0.95
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 7.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 8.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 50% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.37
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.15
  • Net Margin Trend 5.9% vs 5.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(7)

  • Price CAGR 4.71%
  • Gross Margin 15.5%
  • P/FCF 67.99
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -12.0%
  • Share Dilution 36.9%

不可用(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.15

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

36.9%

正在发行新股,稀释所有权

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Shinnosuke HayashiPresident, CEO & Director61
Mr. Yasushi MatsuiCRO, CCO, Chief Safety & Environment Officer & Representative Director61
Mr. Yasuhiko YamazakiEVP, Chief Strategy Officer, CHRO & Representative Director62
Mr. Seiji MaedaCFO & Head of Corporate Management Headquarters-
Tadashi AraiAccounting Manager-
Masanori SugiuraOperating Exec. Officer & Head of Corporate Legal, IP and Public Affairs Headquarters of Audit Dept.-
Yasuhisa SakuraiSenior Executive Officer, Head of Sales & Marketing Group of Corporate Strategy Headquarters-
Chitaka KambeSenior Executive Officers & Head of General Administration and Human Resources Headquarters-
Mr. Kenichiro ItoCEO of EU Area & Senior Executive Officer63
Mr. Jiro EbiharaSr Exec Off, Chief Monozukuri Officer & Head of Purchasing Group, Corp Strategy Headquarters61

审计风险

1

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

5

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

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