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Amdocs Limited (DOX)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

基本面

73

价格

$61.94

市值

$6.41B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Amdocs builds and runs the back-office software that telecom operators use to bill customers, manage their accounts and orchestrate their networks — the systems behind the scenes every time someone signs up for a phone plan, gets a bill, or has their service activated. It works for a small number of very large telecom carriers rather than for consumers, and often keeps running the software on the customer's behalf for years after installing it, rather than just selling a one-time license.

盈利方式

The larger and more stable part of revenue is managed services: Amdocs keeps operating a carrier's billing and network systems on an ongoing contract, which produces recurring, multi-year revenue. The rest comes from project work — building, upgrading or migrating these systems — which is billed as the work is done and is more irregular. Because switching a telecom operator's billing platform is a multi-year undertaking, contracts tend to run for years once signed.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

A telecom operator's billing and customer-management systems touch every subscriber and every invoice, so replacing them is a multi-year, high-risk project most carriers avoid unless forced to. That inertia favors the incumbent vendor, but it is not exclusive to Amdocs: rival providers run the same kind of systems for other large carriers and can win a contract when one comes up for renewal.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Telecom operators must keep billing and serving subscribers regardless of the economic cycle, which supports the managed-services base of Amdocs' revenue. The project-based work that upgrades or migrates systems is more discretionary and can be delayed when a carrier tightens its own capital spending.

主要风险

  • Revenue concentrated in a few telecom carriers — A small number of large customers, led by AT&T and T-Mobile, account for a very large share of revenue. Losing or scaling back business with any of them would be difficult to replace.
  • Consolidation among telecom operators — Mergers among telecom carriers reduce the number of potential customers and can put existing contracts up for renegotiation when two customers combine their systems.
  • Long, complex projects can run over budget — Large system builds and migrations for telecom operators are technically complex and multi-year; delays or cost overruns on fixed-price engagements can hurt margins.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的45.8%

In fiscal 2025, AT&T alone accounted for 25.9% of revenue and T-Mobile for 19.9%, together nearly half of total revenue, with the ten largest customers accounting for about 70%.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the shift toward managed services gives Amdocs increasingly recurring, predictable revenue, that switching costs keep long-standing carrier relationships in place for years, and that telecom operators' need to modernize network and billing systems for cloud and 5G keeps generating new project work.

看空理由

Sellers fear that dependence on two customers for close to half of revenue makes results fragile to a single contract decision, that telecom industry consolidation keeps shrinking the pool of potential customers, and that large fixed-scope technology projects carry real execution risk.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$4.65B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$454M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$701M

股东权益合计

$3.25B

负债合计

$1.09B

流动比率

0.94

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

1.04

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

合理估值

公允价值

$77.55

当前价格

$61.94

安全边际

+20.1%

公允价值区间

$50.41 - $104.69

估算方法

Analyst Target:$75.94
DCF:$158.85
PE-based:$29.35
Graham Growth:$80.54
EPV:$67.96
分析师共识:买入 (7B / 3H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:-0.99%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

14.58

ROE

13.3%

市净率(P/B)

1.97

P/FCF

9.14

毛利率

38.3%

ROIC

15.2%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

15.2%

WACC

6.8%

ROIC − WACC

+8.4 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

基本面分析标准

通过(15)

  • ROIC 15.2%
  • Gross Margin 38.3%
  • P/FCF 9.14
  • P/B Ratio 1.97
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 15.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 64% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.71
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.33
  • Net Margin Trend 12.5% vs 9.9%

未通过(4)

  • Price CAGR 0.53%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 1.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.33

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Shimie HortigPresident, CEO & Director-
Mr. Tal RozenfeldChief Financial Officer-
Mr. Anthony GoonetillekeGroup President of Technology & Head of Strategy-
Mr. Matthew E. SmithSecretary & Head of Investor Relations53
Idit Duvdevany AronsohnHead of Corporate Responsibility, Inclusion & Wellbeing-
Mr. Avishai SharlinGM & Division President58
Mustafa OyumiHead of B2B Strategy-
Mr. Rajat RahejaDivision President of Amdocs Development Centre India LLP56

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

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