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Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY)

POSITIVE
Communication ServicesTelecom ServicesGermany

基本面

75

价格

$29.10

市值

$139.48B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Deutsche Telekom owns and operates telecommunications networks — mobile, fixed-line and broadband — in Germany and across Europe, and holds a majority stake in T-Mobile US, the American mobile carrier. Customers pay recurring fees for voice, data and broadband access, plans that typically run for one or two years, and its Systems Solutions unit sells IT and digital services to businesses and public administrations.

盈利方式

Most revenue is recurring subscription fees for network access, billed monthly regardless of how much a customer actually uses. Building and upgrading the underlying networks — spectrum, fibre, towers — requires continuous heavy capital spending, so profitability depends on spreading that fixed cost over as many paying subscribers as possible; the U.S. business, T-Mobile, is now the largest single contributor to group revenue.

分部营收

United States (T-Mobile US)65.6%

The majority-owned American mobile carrier, now the largest single source of group revenue and profit.

Germany21.5%

The domestic mobile, fixed-line and broadband business, including the Deutsche Telekom brand's home market.

Europe10.6%

Mobile and fixed-line operations in other European countries outside Germany.

Systems Solutions3.4%

IT, cloud and digital services sold to business and public-sector customers, separate from the network businesses.

护城河

规模效应 · 狭窄

Owning nationwide spectrum licences and physical network infrastructure is expensive enough to keep out most new entrants, and customers rarely switch carriers over small price differences once installed. But the advantage is not exclusive: a handful of well-capitalized rivals own comparable networks in every market Deutsche Telekom serves, so competition still pressures prices.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Mobile and broadband access are close to essential services for most households and businesses, so subscriber numbers hold up reasonably well even in a weaker economy. Growth instead comes mainly from price increases, added services and subscriber gains in the U.S. market rather than from the economic cycle.

主要风险

  • Intense competition in the U.S. market — T-Mobile US operates in a market the company describes as intensively competitive, with potential saturation of wireless customer growth and increasing convergence among mobile, fixed-network and satellite providers.
  • Data privacy and cybersecurity — The company ranks data privacy and security as its highest-significance operational risk, citing GDPR exposure with potential fines of up to 2-4% of total worldwide annual revenue alongside evolving cyber threats.
  • German and European market competition — Intensifying competition and uncertain economic conditions across consumer, business and wholesale segments in Germany have raised this risk from low to medium significance.
  • Procurement and supplier disruption — The company raised this risk from medium to high significance, citing geopolitical disruption, component shortages, supplier concentration and the pass-through cost of U.S. tariffs.

看多理由

Buyers argue that T-Mobile US's continued subscriber and service-revenue growth makes it the group's main value driver, that owning irreplaceable network infrastructure across Germany, Europe and the U.S. gives durable pricing power, and that steady, recurring subscription revenue supports the dividend even through economic downturns.

看空理由

Sellers fear that group results now depend heavily on a single foreign subsidiary exposed to U.S.-specific competitive and regulatory swings, that intensifying competition in both Germany and the U.S. will keep pressuring prices, and that heavy ongoing network investment leaves less room for error if growth in any one market slows.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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资产负债表与流动性

营收

$119.69B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$8.64B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$17.39B

股东权益合计

$59.85B

负债合计

$146.76B

流动比率

1.03

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

3.44

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被低估

公允价值

$60.56

当前价格

$29.10

安全边际

+51.9%

公允价值区间

$39.36 - $81.75

估算方法

Analyst Target:$37.10
DCF:$159.44
PE-based:$20.23
Graham Growth:$68.45
EPV:$49.47
分析师共识:强力买入 (22B / 2H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+2.42%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

16.38

ROE

15.1%

市净率(P/B)

2.33

P/FCF

8.02

毛利率

44.9%

ROIC

11.1%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

11.1%

WACC

3.8%

ROIC − WACC

+7.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

基本面分析标准

通过(15)

  • Price CAGR 6.00%
  • ROIC 11.1%
  • Gross Margin 44.9%
  • P/FCF 8.02
  • P/B Ratio 2.33
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 14.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 92% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.0%
  • PEG Ratio 0.89
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 4.25

未通过(4)

  • CapEx intensity
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 8.1% vs 9.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

4.25

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Timotheus HottgesChairman of Management Board & CEO63
Dr. Christian P. IllekCFO & Product and Technology & Member of Management Board61
Dr. Ferri Abolhassan Pur-MoghaddamMember of the Executive Board61
Mr. Thorsten LangheimMember of Management Board & Executive VP of Group Corporate Development and USA59
Ms. Birgit M. BohleMember of Mgt Board,Chief HR Officer & Legal Affairs,Labor Director&Member of Data Privacy Adv Board52
Mr. Rodrigo Francisco DiehlMember of Management Board50
Dr. Guillaume MaisondieuSenior Vice President of Group Accounting & Customer Finance-
Mr. Hannes WittigHead of Investor Relations-
Dr. Claudia JunkerExecutive VP, Head of the Legal, Compliance & Data Privacy Department-
Ms. Marie von der GroebenChief Compliance Officer-

审计风险

3

董事会风险

3

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

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