Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)
POSITIVE基本面
77
价格
$146.48
市值
$6.84B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Duolingo makes a free language-learning app built around short, game-like lessons, streaks and leaderboards designed to make studying feel like a habit rather than homework. Beyond its original languages, it now teaches math, music and chess through the same format. Most users never pay: the free version carries ads and nudges toward a paid tier. Revenue depends on converting a fraction of a very large free user base into paying subscribers, plus a standardized English proficiency test increasingly accepted by universities and employers.
盈利方式
Subscriptions are the business: Duolingo charges a recurring fee for an ad-free experience with extra practice tools, and most of its revenue and nearly all of its growth come from converting free users into subscribers. The free tier itself generates advertising revenue from the users who never upgrade. Two smaller lines round it out: in-app purchases of virtual items, and the Duolingo English Test, a lower-cost alternative to traditional exams that schools and employers can accept for admissions or hiring.
分部营收
Recurring fees for an ad-free app with extra practice features — the large majority of revenue and nearly all of its growth.
Ads shown inside the free version of the app to the large share of users who never convert to a paid subscription.
A standardized English proficiency test taken online, priced below traditional exams and increasingly accepted by universities and employers.
One-off purchases of virtual items such as streak freezes and gems inside the app, separate from the subscription.
护城河
品牌 · 狭窄Duolingo's mascot and gamified format have built a level of brand recognition few education apps match, and its huge free user base generates usage data that helps tune course content and habit-forming mechanics. But the company itself warns that switching costs are low: a language learner unhappy with the app can move to a rival with little lost, so the brand has to keep re-earning attention.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性Language learning is a discretionary purchase, but at a low monthly price it tends to survive belt-tightening better than bigger subscription bills, and habit-forming design keeps engaged users paying month after month. Growth is currently driven less by macro conditions than by how many free users the company can convert to paid tiers and by expansion into new subjects and geographies.
主要风险
- Dependent on Apple and Google's app stores — Nearly all subscriptions and purchases are collected through the Apple App Store and Google Play, which take a cut of revenue and control the rules for how the app can be distributed and priced.
- Low switching costs in a crowded market — The company itself describes the language-learning market as one with low switching costs and a constant stream of new entrants, meaning a competitor's better feature or price can pull users away quickly.
- Growth depends on converting free users — The overwhelming majority of users never pay; revenue growth depends on continuing to convert a rising share of a very large free user base rather than on the free base itself.
- Revenue tied to daily engagement — The gamified format is built to keep users opening the app daily; if engagement habits fade or a new format proves more compelling, both subscription renewals and ad revenue would suffer together.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Duolingo's brand and gamified format keep converting a growing share of an enormous free user base into paying subscribers, and that expansion beyond languages into math, music and testing gives the company more ways to monetize the same audience.
看空理由
Sellers worry that the company's own filing describes low switching costs and a constant stream of new entrants in language learning, that almost all revenue still depends on turning free users into payers, and that dependence on Apple's and Google's app stores hands both companies a cut and a say over pricing.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$1.15B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$411M
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$370M
股东权益合计
$1.35B
负债合计
$645M
流动比率
2.72
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
0.57
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$260.17
当前价格
$146.48
安全边际
+43.7%
公允价值区间
$169.11 - $351.22
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
17.30
ROE
30.7%
市净率（P/B）
1.73
P/FCF
5.99
毛利率
72.7%
ROIC
8.3%
盈利能力雷达图
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
8.3%
WACC
10.0%
ROIC − WACC
-1.7 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
基本面分析标准
通过（19）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 6.61%
- ROIC 8.3%
- Gross Margin 72.7%
- P/FCF 5.99
- P/B Ratio 1.73
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 13.7%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 30.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 45.0%
- Earnings Surprise avg 173.4%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.05
- Net Margin Trend 35.9% vs 13.2%
未通过（5）
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
- Analyst Consensus 29% Buy
- Share Dilution 2.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
不可用（3）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-评分
信号混杂：部分领域需关注
盈利质量
高质量：盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在发行新股，稀释所有权
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Luis Alfonso von Ahn Arellano Ph.D. | Co-Founder, Chairman of the Board, President & CEO | 46 |
| Ms. Gillian Munson | Chief Financial Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Stephen Chen | General Counsel | 50 |
| Mr. Matthew Skaruppa | Advisor | 43 |
| Mr. Robert Meese | Chief Business Officer | 47 |
| Dr. Natalie Glance Ph.D. | Chief Engineering Officer | 56 |
| Dr. Severin Benedict Hacker Ph.D. | Co-Founder, CTO & Director | 39 |
| Ms. Deborah Belevan CPA | VP of Investor Relations | - |
| Sam Dalsimer | Global Head of Communications | - |
| Mr. Manu Orssaud | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
审计风险
1
董事会风险
8
薪酬风险
8
股东权利风险
10
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
Latest News
Recent headlines for DUOL, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7d agoPOSITIVEPerché il titolo Duolingo sale del 6% oggi
Duolingo Inc. shares surged 6.6% on Tuesday, outperforming a broader market downturn. This rally was triggered by DA Davidson upgrading the language learning company's stock to 'Buy' and increasing its price target. Despite investor concerns about user growth and monetization deceleration, the upgrade highlights ongoing product improvements and strategic developments. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%, underscoring Duolingo's individual stock strength amidst market headwinds. This analyst upgrade suggests a positive outlook on Duolingo's future performance.
- 20d agoNEGATIVEDuolingo Shares Fall On Tepid Sales Outlook
Duolingo Inc. experienced a significant stock price decline of up to 12% on Wednesday. This downturn was primarily triggered by the company issuing a conservative revenue outlook for the current quarter. Despite reporting strong user growth, the tepid sales forecast overshadowed these positive metrics. Investors reacted negatively to the guidance, suggesting concerns about future revenue generation and potential market saturation or increased competition. The market's reaction highlights the sensitivity of growth stocks to forward-looking financial projections, even when current operational metrics appear robust.
- 6/8/2026POSITIVEDuolingo Stock Is Climbing Monday: What's Going On?
Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) shares experienced a notable upward trend on Monday, driven by an improved market risk appetite. This surge follows a prolonged year-long slide, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the stock. The rebound indicates that buyers are actively re-engaging with the stock, possibly anticipating a turnaround or capitalizing on perceived undervaluation after the extended downturn. Investors will be watching to see if this positive momentum can be sustained.
- 5/7/2026POSITIVEDuolingo Stock Is Climbing Thursday: What's Driving The Move?
Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) experienced a significant stock price increase on Thursday, fueled by the company's robust performance in the first quarter. Investors are responding positively to Duolingo's earnings beat and sustained profitability momentum. This upward trend suggests strong market confidence in the company's business model and future growth prospects, potentially indicating a favorable environment for shareholders.
- 3/31/2026POSITIVEWhy Is Duolingo Stock Surging Tuesday?
Duolingo's stock experienced a significant surge of over 7% on Tuesday, indicating strong positive momentum. While the article mentions technical levels, short interest, and sector trends as potential drivers, the primary takeaway for investors is the substantial intraday price appreciation. This jump suggests renewed investor interest or positive sentiment surrounding the company, potentially fueled by recent performance, upcoming product launches, or favorable market conditions within the edtech sector. Further analysis of the specific catalysts would be needed to confirm the long-term implications.
- 3/11/2026POSITIVE1 Glorious Growth Stock, Down 81%, You Might Regret Not Buying on the Dip in March
Duolingo Inc. shares have experienced a significant decline of 81%, prompting speculation that the current dip may present a buying opportunity. The company's projected growth trajectory for the coming years suggests that the market's reaction might be an overcorrection. Investors are advised to consider the long-term potential of Duolingo's business model and its expansion plans as a key factor in evaluating the stock's current valuation.
- 3/9/2026NEGATIVEDuolingo Stock Is Down Big This Year. Here's Why Things Could Get Even Worse
Duolingo's stock has experienced a significant decline this year, with further deterioration possible as the company shifts its strategic focus towards user growth over immediate financial gains. This prioritization may lead to short-term negative impacts on its financial performance, potentially affecting revenue and profitability metrics. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of how this strategy impacts the company's bottom line and its ability to meet market expectations.
- 3/9/2026POSITIVEArthedge Capital Doubles Down on Duolingo Stock, Adds Another $7 Million
Artheadge Capital has significantly increased its stake in Duolingo, adding another $7 million to its holdings. This substantial investment by a known capital firm signals strong conviction in Duolingo's business model and future growth prospects. The company, which provides digital language-learning tools globally, relies on continuous product innovation and user engagement. Artheadge's increased exposure suggests they anticipate further positive developments, potentially including strong user acquisition, revenue growth, or successful expansion into new markets, making Duolingo an attractive prospect for investors.
- 3/6/2026NEGATIVEGilder Gagnon Howe Dumps 66,000 Duolingo Shares Worth $15.7 Million
Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co. has significantly reduced its stake in Duolingo Inc., divesting approximately 66,000 shares valued at $15.7 million. This substantial sell-off by a notable institutional investor suggests a potential shift in sentiment or a strategic portfolio rebalancing. For Duolingo, a company known for its digital language learning platform, this move could signal concerns about future growth prospects or valuation, potentially impacting investor confidence and share price in the short term.
- 3/3/2026NEGATIVEWhy Duolingo Stock Fell 24% in February
Duolingo Inc.'s stock experienced a significant 24% decline in February, a development that has alarmed investors. This downturn was triggered by growing fears that artificial intelligence could pose a disruptive threat to the company's business model. The market is closely evaluating how advanced AI capabilities might impact the language learning sector, putting pressure on Duolingo's growth prospects and valuation. This event underscores the technology sector's sensitivity to innovations and perceived risks associated with AI evolution.
via Markets Gazette