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Ferrovial SE (FER)

NEUTRAL
IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNetherlands

基本面

53

价格

$63.02

市值

$45.29B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Ferrovial builds and operates large transport infrastructure: toll highways, airports and construction projects for governments and public agencies. It designs and constructs roads, rail and airport facilities under contract, and separately holds long-term concessions — decades-long rights, granted by governments, to operate a specific highway or airport and collect tolls or fees from it. The concessions, not the construction work, are what the company is ultimately built around.

盈利方式

Construction revenue is booked as work is completed on fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly for public clients, and depends on winning and executing a limited number of large projects. Highway revenue comes from tolls paid by drivers, often linked to inflation or traffic volume under the concession terms, and flows to Ferrovial mainly as dividends from the project companies it partly owns. Airport revenue would work the same way once assets like New Terminal One at JFK become operational; today that project is still under construction and not yet generating toll-like income.

分部营收

Construction80.2%

Building roads, rail and other infrastructure for public and private clients under fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly in North America, Poland and Spain.

Highways14.6%

Toll roads held under long-term concessions, led by North American managed lanes and Canada's 407 ETR, which paid large dividends in 2025.

Energy3.5%

A smaller and more recent line of energy infrastructure projects, still modest relative to construction and highways.

护城河

专利与许可 · 宽阔

Each highway or airport concession is a government-granted, decades-long exclusive right to operate a specific piece of infrastructure — there is no realistic way for a competitor to build a parallel toll road next to an existing one. That legal exclusivity, not brand or technology, is the source of the advantage, and it applies only to the concessions Ferrovial already holds, not to the construction business, which is competitively bid project by project.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Highway toll revenue is fairly steady, tied to driving habits and inflation-linked tariff formulas rather than to the broader economic cycle. Construction revenue is choppier: it depends on how many large public infrastructure contracts are being awarded at a given time and on Ferrovial winning a share of them, which can swing year to year even when the economy is stable.

主要风险

  • Dependence on a small number of large projects — A large share of revenue and profit comes from a limited number of major construction contracts and concessions, so losing a bid, a cost overrun, or a delay on any one of them has an outsized effect on results.
  • Government contracting and regulatory risk — Concessions operate under agreements with governments that can change tariff rules, delay approvals, or in some cases move to buy back or renegotiate the concession, all of which are outside the company's control.
  • New Terminal One execution risk — The New Terminal One at JFK Airport is a large, complex project still under construction and systems integration, with completion phases pushed to later dates; delays or cost increases weigh on the airports business before it starts generating revenue.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic exposure — The company points to geopolitical conflicts, inflation, interest-rate volatility and foreign-exchange swings as factors that can affect project costs, financing and the value of assets held in different currencies.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the highway concessions behave like inflation-linked annuities with no realistic competition, that the construction order book at a record €17.4 billion gives years of visible work, and that New Terminal One will eventually add a third durable, concession-like income stream once it opens.

看空理由

Sellers worry that construction remains a low-margin, project-dependent business exposed to cost overruns and government-client relationships, that concession value depends on regulatory goodwill that can turn adversarial, and that New Terminal One's repeated delays show how much execution risk sits between today's spending and tomorrow's cash flow.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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资产负债表与流动性

营收

$9.92B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$612M

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$890M

股东权益合计

$6.68B

负债合计

$10.66B

流动比率

1.20

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

6.88

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被高估

公允价值

$47.59

当前价格

$63.02

安全边际

-32.4%

公允价值区间

$30.93 - $64.25

估算方法

Analyst Target:$77.52
DCF:$22.74
PE-based:$55.36
Graham Growth:$15.79
EPV:$10.88
分析师共识:买入 (16B / 9H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+5.26%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

73.87

ROE

11.6%

市净率(P/B)

8.01

P/FCF

50.91

毛利率

69.3%

ROIC

4.7%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.7%

WACC

8.0%

ROIC − WACC

-3.3 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(11)

  • Price CAGR 13.41%
  • Gross Margin 69.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 10.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • ROE 10.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 59% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 440.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.80

未通过(9)

  • ROIC 4.7%
  • P/FCF 50.91
  • P/B Ratio 8.01
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 35.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.80

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Rafael del Pino y Calvo-SoteloPresident & Executive Chairman67
Mr. Ignacio Madridejos FernandezCEO & Executive Director59
Mr. Ernesto Lopez MozoChief Financial Officer61
Angel Luis SanchezMajor Projects & Operations Director-
Mr. Ignacio del PinoChief Investment Officer-
Mr. Dimitris BountolosChief Information & Innovation Officer-
Silvia RuizInvestor Relations Director-
Ms. Geerte HesenGeneral Counsel, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Secretary-
Ms. Patricia LeivaDirector of Communication & Corporate Social Responsibility-
Mr. Carlos Cerezo ParedesChief Human Resources Officer50

审计风险

1

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for FER, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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