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Nel ASA (NLLSF)

NEGATIVE
IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNorway

基本面

29

价格

$2.13

市值

$3.82B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Nel ASA makes the equipment that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity, a process called electrolysis, for customers who want to produce hydrogen as an industrial input or fuel without burning fossil fuels. It sells two competing technologies — alkaline electrolysers, built at its Herøya plant in Norway, and proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) electrolysers, built in Connecticut — to industrial gas companies, energy firms and other buyers pursuing hydrogen projects. Nel spun off its hydrogen refueling-station business as a separate listed company, Cavendish Hydrogen, in mid-2024.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from selling electrolyser equipment on a project-by-project basis, so results depend heavily on how many customers reach a final investment decision and place an order in a given period, not on repeat, predictable purchases. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 31% to NOK 963 million from NOK 1,390 million, driven by a sharp drop in alkaline-electrolyser sales that a smaller gain in PEM sales only partly offset — a sign of how lumpy and order-dependent revenue still is in an industry where large hydrogen projects are still early and often delayed.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Orders depend on customers committing capital to large, multi-year hydrogen production projects, decisions that are highly sensitive to government subsidies, the price of competing fossil-fuel-based hydrogen, and the cost of the renewable electricity the process consumes. When any of these turns unfavorable, customers can and do delay final investment decisions, leaving Nel's order book thin for extended periods.

看多理由

Buyers argue that offering both alkaline and PEM technology lets Nel serve whichever projects favor either approach, that spinning off the refueling business focuses the company on its larger electrolyser opportunity, and that a rebound in PEM orders points to renewed customer interest once project financing conditions improve.

看空理由

Sellers fear that a 31% revenue decline in a single year shows how few large hydrogen projects are actually reaching a final investment decision, that project-based orders make revenue inherently unpredictable from one year to the next, and that Nel remains unprofitable while it waits for the hydrogen market to scale.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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资产负债表与流动性

营收

$935M

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$-1.65B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$-598M

股东权益合计

$3.60B

负债合计

$218M

流动比率

4.00

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

-

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

合理估值

公允价值

$2.08

当前价格

$2.13

安全边际

-2.2%

公允价值区间

$1.98 - $2.19

估算方法

Analyst Target:$2.08
DCF:-
PE-based:-
Graham Growth:-
EPV:-
分析师共识:卖出 (1B / 9H / 11S)
最近财报超预期:-34.95%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

-

ROE

-30.3%

市净率(P/B)

1.05

P/FCF

-

毛利率

57.9%

ROIC

-25.9%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-25.9%

WACC

7.6%

ROIC − WACC

-33.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(5)

  • Gross Margin 57.9%
  • P/B Ratio 1.05
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%

未通过(10)

  • Price CAGR 0.67%
  • ROIC -25.9%
  • Operating Margin -147.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -32.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 5% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -170.1%
  • Net Margin Trend -115.0% vs -16.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

不可用(12)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

1/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

-

低质量:需深入审查会计处理

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Kjell Christian BjornsenChief Financial Officer49
Mr. Marius LøkenChief Technical Officer48
Mr. Stein Ove Erdal J.D.Chief Legal Officer46
Ms. Anne LibergChief People & Culture Officer (CHRO)-
Mr. Todd CartwrightChief Commercial Officer59
Mr. Tushar GhuwalewalaSenior VP of PEM Operations-
Ms. Birgitte NordvikChief Project Officer-
Mr. Mats BohmanVice President of Alkaline Operations-
Mr. Wilhelm FlinderHead of IR, Communications & Marketing-
Tomas TronstadManaging Director of Hyon-

审计风险

1

董事会风险

1

薪酬风险

6

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

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