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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

POSITIVE
IndustrialsTruckingUnited States

基本面

70

价格

$198.34

市值

$41.90B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Old Dominion Freight Line moves freight that is too small to fill a full truck — a few pallets or boxes rather than an entire trailer — picking up shipments from many customers, sorting them at regional service centers, and combining them onto trucks headed the same direction. It operates this less-than-truckload, or LTL, network itself across the United States with its own drivers, terminals and trucks rather than through franchisees or outside carriers, and adds services like expedited and guaranteed delivery.

盈利方式

Revenue is charged per shipment, based mainly on weight and distance, so it rises and falls with how much freight moves through the economy rather than with any subscription or long-term contract base. Because the network's fixed costs — terminals, trucks and staff — barely change with volume, profitability depends heavily on keeping trucks and terminals full: a small change in shipment density can swing operating margins by a large amount in either direction.

护城河

成本优势 · 狭窄

Decades of investment in a dense, non-union terminal network let Old Dominion run at some of the lowest costs and highest on-time delivery rates in the LTL industry, a combination that is hard for a new or smaller carrier to match quickly. That efficiency shows up in an industry-leading operating ratio, but the LTL market remains competitive on price, so the edge is durable rather than unassailable.

需求驱动因素

周期性

LTL shipment volumes track industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity closely, so freight demand slows sharply when the broader economy weakens — 2025 revenue fell as shipment volumes declined during a soft freight market. Pricing tends to be more resilient than volume, since carriers are reluctant to cut rates even when demand softens.

主要风险

  • Freight cycle and industrial activity — Shipment volumes fall when industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity slow, as happened in 2025; revenue and profitability move directly with the broader freight cycle.
  • Fixed cost operating leverage — Terminals, trucks and drivers are largely fixed costs regardless of volume, so a drop in shipments cannot easily be matched by cost cuts, and operating margins compress quickly in a downturn.
  • Driver and labor availability — The business depends on recruiting and retaining enough qualified drivers and dock workers; a shortage or higher wage costs would raise expenses or limit how much freight the network can move.
  • Fuel price volatility — Diesel is a major operating cost; while fuel surcharges pass much of the cost through to customers, sharp price swings can still create timing mismatches that pressure margins.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的16%

The customer base is highly diversified: the single largest customer represented about 4% of 2025 revenue, and the top 10 customers combined represented about 16%.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Old Dominion's dense, non-union network gives it a durable cost and service advantage over LTL rivals, reflected in an industry-leading operating ratio, and that a highly diversified customer base with no meaningful concentration limits the damage any single account can do.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the business is fundamentally tied to the industrial and freight cycle, that 2025's volume decline shows how quickly a soft economy erodes results, and that heavy fixed costs in terminals and trucks turn even a modest downturn in shipments into a larger hit to margins.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$5.60B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$1.09B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$955M

股东权益合计

$4.31B

负债合计

$1.16B

流动比率

1.89

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.01

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

General case被高估

公允价值

$160.10

当前价格

$198.34

安全边际

-23.9%

公允价值区间

$104.06 - $216.13

估算方法

Analyst price target:$232.14
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$87.55
Earnings multiple (P/E):$179.59
Graham growth formula:$141.86
Earnings power value (EPV):$49.34
Justified P/B:$60.71
Dividend discount (Gordon):$16.36
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$101.08
Revenue multiple:$74.48
分析师共识:买入 (14B / 15H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+9.03%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

38.14

ROE

23.7%

市净率(P/B)

9.04

P/FCF

36.89

毛利率

-

ROIC

22.0%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

22.0%

WACC

11.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.9 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.39%
  • Price CAGR 21.86%
  • ROIC 22.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 25.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.28
  • Share Dilution -2.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 19.4% vs 19.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(7)

  • P/FCF 36.89
  • P/B Ratio 9.04
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 45% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 3.67

不可用(3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.28

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-2.3%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. David S. CongdonExecutive Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Kevin M. FreemanPresident, CEO & Director66
Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPAExecutive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO50
Mr. Gregory B. PlemmonsExecutive VP & COO59
Mr. Ross H. ParrSenior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.Senior Vice President of Strategic Development63
Mr. Earl E. CongdonChairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor94
Mr. Clayton G. BrinkerVP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer39
Mr. Jack Lawrence AtkinsDirector of Investor Relations-
Sam FaucetteVice President of Safety & Compliance-

审计风险

5

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

2

股东权利风险

9

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for ODFL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Here's Why Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Slumped This Week

    Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock experienced a significant downturn this week, despite a general recovery observed in the broader freight market. The market's anticipation of this recovery appears to have already been factored into sector stock valuations, leaving little room for further upside. Investors are likely reassessing the stock's premium in light of this 'priced-in' recovery, leading to the price slump. This suggests that while the industry fundamentals are improving, ODFL may have been overvalued based on future expectations.

via Markets Gazette