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SAP SE (SAPGF)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationGermany

基本面

63

价格

$185.46

市值

$215.70B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

SAP makes the software many large companies run their core operations on — accounting, supply chain, manufacturing and human resources — bundled into a system called ERP (enterprise resource planning). Once a company builds its finance and operations processes around SAP's system, that software becomes the record of how the business runs, which is why customers rarely switch providers. SAP is shifting its customers from software installed on their own servers to cloud subscriptions it hosts and updates itself.

盈利方式

Cloud subscriptions are billed recurring, usually annual, fees tied to usage or number of users, and now make up the majority of what SAP calls cloud and software revenue; older on-premise licenses are sold once and then generate smaller annual maintenance fees, a mix that is shrinking as customers migrate. Services revenue, a smaller and less profitable slice, comes from consultants helping customers implement and migrate these systems, typically billed by the project or by time.

分部营收

Cloud and Software88.4%

Cloud subscription revenue, now SAP's largest line, plus remaining on-premise software licenses and their maintenance fees.

Services11.6%

Consulting, implementation and training services that help customers deploy and migrate SAP software, billed separately from the software itself.

护城河

转换成本 · 宽阔

SAP's software becomes deeply embedded in how a large company records its finances and runs its operations, with years of customization, staff training and connections to other internal systems built on top of it. Independent studies have found that switching ERP providers typically costs several times the original software price and takes over a year, which is why SAP keeps the large majority of its enterprise customers even when rivals offer comparable features.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Recurring cloud subscriptions make revenue more predictable than a typical software license business, since customers rarely cancel core ERP systems even when budgets tighten. Still, corporate IT spending does slow in downturns, and the pace at which customers commit to new cloud migrations can stretch out when their own businesses are under pressure.

主要风险

  • Intense competition in enterprise software — The company faces sustained competition from large rivals such as Oracle and Salesforce, who are also embedding AI features into cloud applications, which pressures pricing and can slow customer wins.
  • Cloud migration execution risk — Moving large customers from on-premise systems to the cloud involves remediating custom code, cleaning data and securing internal support within the customer's organization, and on-premise license revenue is declining meaningfully as this transition proceeds.
  • Data, antitrust and regulatory exposure — The company is subject to data-access and antitrust-related claims, including allegations of lock-in effects, as well as dependence on third-party cloud infrastructure and web services it does not fully control.

看多理由

Buyers see a company that has successfully shifted the majority of its revenue to recurring cloud subscriptions, still holds the deepest customer lock-in in enterprise software, and can raise prices on a captive base of hundreds of thousands of customers as it layers AI features onto the same ERP backbone.

看空理由

Sellers worry that the on-premise license decline is eroding a historically high-margin revenue stream faster than cloud subscriptions can fully replace it, that cloud backlog growth is expected to moderate as the business scales, and that well-funded rivals embedding their own AI agents could chip away at renewal pricing over time.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$38.19B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$7.80B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$9.09B

股东权益合计

$44.74B

负债合计

$9.94B

流动比率

1.15

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.85

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被高估

公允价值

$146.32

当前价格

$185.46

安全边际

-26.7%

公允价值区间

$101.17 - $191.46

估算方法

Analyst Target:$205.77
DCF:$130.06
PE-based:$114.54
Graham Growth:$131.91
EPV:$67.02
分析师共识:买入 (30B / 7H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:-11.11%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

27.98

ROE

18.3%

市净率(P/B)

4.82

P/FCF

23.73

毛利率

73.7%

ROIC

15.2%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

15.2%

WACC

9.9%

ROIC − WACC

+5.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

基本面分析标准

通过(14)

  • Price CAGR 8.32%
  • ROIC 15.2%
  • Gross Margin 73.7%
  • P/FCF 23.73
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 17.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.26
  • Net Margin Trend 20.4% vs 9.1%

未通过(5)

  • P/B Ratio 4.82
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.8%
  • PEG Ratio 3.78
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.26

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Christian KleinCEO & Member of Executive Board45
Mr. Lars LamadeHead of Global Sponsorships & Deputy Chairperson of the Supervisory Board54
Mr. Dominik AsamCFO & Member of Executive Board56
Mr. Thomas SaueressigMember of Executive Board40
Mr. Sebastian SteinhaeuserChief Strategy Officer & COO and Member of Executive Board39
Ms. Gina Vargiu-BreuerChief People Officer, Labor Director & Member of Executive Board49
Mr. Muhammad AlamLead Product Engineering & Member of Executive Board47
Mr. Andreas HahnChairperson of Works Council Europe & Works Council Europe Rep Member of Supervisory Board54
Jakub CernyDemand Manager & Works Council Europe Representative Member of Supervisory Board43
Mr. Pascal DematSolution Advisor HCM & Works Council Europe Representative Member of Supervisory Board58

审计风险

10

董事会风险

2

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

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