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Summerset Group Holdings Limited (SMGRF)

NEUTRAL
HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNew Zealand

基本面

48

价格

$7.77

市值

$1.89B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Summerset builds and operates retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia, where it sells residents the right to occupy a unit for life in exchange for an upfront payment, then provides care services — from independent living to full nursing care — as residents age. It is both a developer, building new villages on land it buys, and a long-term operator running dining, care and community services for thousands of residents already living in its villages.

盈利方式

Revenue is a mix of several streams rather than a single product sale: weekly fees residents pay for care and village services, a share of the gain when a departing resident's occupation right is resold to a new one, and government subsidies for eligible aged-care residents that make up a majority of the care revenue. Because these streams are recognized differently — some upfront, some accrued over years of occupancy — reported revenue does not map cleanly onto new-unit sales in any given year.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Demand is driven by an aging population choosing to move into a retirement village, a decision that is only loosely tied to the economic cycle since it follows health and life-stage needs more than discretionary spending power. It is not fully immune to downturns, though, since a resident's ability to buy an occupation right often depends on selling their existing home first.

看多理由

Buyers argue that an aging population in New Zealand and Australia gives Summerset a decades-long demand tailwind, that owning the land bank lets it capture development margin most competitors cannot, and that record deliveries and underlying profit in fiscal 2025 show the model scaling as intended.

看空理由

Sellers fear that resales gains depend on house-price and property-market conditions outside the company's control, that a housing downturn could slow the pace at which prospective residents can sell their own homes to buy in, and that a large land and development bank ties up capital for years before it converts into cash.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

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资产负债表与流动性

营收

$363M

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$262M

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$-74M

股东权益合计

$3.34B

负债合计

$1.99B

流动比率

0.13

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

65.83

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被低估

公允价值

$10.48

当前价格

$7.77

安全边际

+25.9%

公允价值区间

$8.18 - $12.78

估算方法

Analyst Target:$13.02
DCF:$12.94
PE-based:$7.80
Graham Growth:$10.51
EPV:$8.19
分析师共识:买入 (8B / 2H / 0S)

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

7.23

ROE

8.3%

市净率(P/B)

0.57

P/FCF

-

毛利率

90.0%

ROIC

0.1%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

0.1%

WACC

5.4%

ROIC − WACC

-5.3 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(9)

  • Gross Margin 90.0%
  • P/B Ratio 0.57
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 75.0%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 8.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.11

未通过(9)

  • Price CAGR 4.65%
  • ROIC 0.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • PEG Ratio 6.00
  • Net Margin Trend 71.8% vs 106.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Earnings Surprise (Finnhub)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.11

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Scott Grady Scoullar BCA, C.A., FCPAChief Executive Officer-
Mr. John O'SullivanFounder-
Ms. Margaret WarringtonChief Financial Officer-
Ms. Robyn HeymanHead of Legal & Company Secretary-
Mr. David MartinChief Sales & Marketing Transformation Lead-
Ms. Chris Lokum BMSChief People Officer-
Mr. Dean Tallentire B.Sc.Chief Construction Officer of NZ-
Ms. Eleanor Young B.Sc.Chief Operating Officer of NZ-
Mr. Aaron Smail B.E., BBSChief Development Officer of NZ-
Mr. Stewart ScottChief Operating Officer of Australia-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

4

薪酬风险

6

股东权利风险

7

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

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