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AXA SA (AXAHF)

NEUTRAL
Financial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedFrance

ファンダメンタル

63

株価

$43.68

時価総額

$91.71B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

AXA insures homes, cars, businesses and people against loss, illness and death, and sells life-savings and health policies alongside its property and casualty business. It collects premiums from millions of policyholders across Europe, Asia and elsewhere, and its AXA XL unit specializes in large commercial and specialty risks. A much smaller asset management arm invests money for clients for a fee.

収益の仕組み

Premiums are collected upfront and claims are paid later, sometimes decades later for life and health policies, so profit comes from underwriting discipline — pricing risk correctly — plus the investment income earned on the funds held in between. Asset management adds a smaller, fee-based income stream that depends on the value of assets managed rather than on claims experience.

セグメント別売上高

Property & Casualty50.3%

Insurance for cars, homes, businesses and large commercial and specialty risks, including through the AXA XL unit.

Life & Health49%

Savings, protection and health policies, with health premiums growing faster than the rest of the group in the latest year.

Asset Management0.8%

Fee-based investment management, now much smaller after the 2025 sale of AXA Investment Managers to BNP Paribas.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

A global brand, broad distribution and a large capital base give AXA underwriting and pricing advantages over smaller insurers. The advantage is not exclusive, however: several other large composite insurers operate at similar scale in AXA's core European and Asian markets, and policyholders can and do switch insurers at renewal.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Car, home and liability insurance are largely mandatory or near-mandatory, so premium volumes hold up through economic downturns better than most consumer businesses. Growth still responds to the economy at the margin, through new business formation, asset values for savings products, and how much coverage households choose to buy.

主なリスク

  • Frequency and severity of insured losses — The company lists the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including weather-related catastrophes, as a main risk factor; it targets a normalized natural-catastrophe load of about 4.5 points of the combined ratio, and a worse year than that assumption directly hits underwriting profit.
  • Interest rate and market conditions — The company identifies market performance and exchange- and interest-rate fluctuations as a key risk, since they affect both the value of the investment portfolio backing its policies and the cost of long-term savings guarantees.
  • Mortality and morbidity assumptions — Life and health results depend on how actual mortality and morbidity compare with the assumptions used to price policies decades in advance; the company lists these levels among its principal risk factors.

強気材料

Buyers argue that growth across both Property & Casualty and Life & Health in 2025, together with a still-comfortable Solvency II capital ratio, shows a diversified and well-capitalized insurer, and that the sale of the asset management arm sharpens the focus on the core, better-margin insurance business.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that a normalized natural-catastrophe assumption of 4.5 points can be exceeded in a genuinely bad year for weather losses, that a large long-duration life book stays exposed to interest-rate swings for decades, and that the Solvency II capital ratio has already declined from year-end 2025 levels, leaving less buffer than before.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 10.6Score: 68Market cap: $195.01B

Europe's other large multiline insurer, competing with AXA for the same retail, health and corporate property-and-casualty customers in Germany, France, Italy and Asia.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.G

Sells life, health and property-and-casualty policies through agent networks in the same Continental European markets where AXA earns most of its premiums, Italy and France above all.

Zurich Insurance Group AGZURN

Goes head-to-head with AXA XL for the global commercial property-and-casualty programmes of large corporations, and with AXA's retail arms in Switzerland, Germany and Italy.

Chubb LimitedCB

Writes the same large-corporate and specialty property-and-casualty risks that AXA XL underwrites, competing broker by broker for the same commercial accounts.

Covéa (MAAF, MMA, GMF)Not tracked

France's leading motor and home insurer, disputing with AXA France the same domestic retail policyholders that make France AXA's largest single market.

Aviva plcAV.

Competes with AXA's UK and Irish operations for the same general insurance, group health and commercial customers.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$96.20B

直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計

純利益

$10.17B

直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計

フリーキャッシュフロー

$-26.39B

自己資本合計

$46.19B

負債合計

$61.11B

流動比率

11.53

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

-

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$82.95

現在株価

$43.68

安全マージン

+47.3%

適正価値レンジ

$53.92 - $111.98

推定方法

Analyst Target:$50.51
DCF:$132.71
PE-based:$37.13
Graham Growth:$190.99
EPV:$42.55
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (25B / 3H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-2.91%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

9.07

ROE

14.9%

P/B レシオ

2.00

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

14.9%

ROIC

8.5%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.5%

WACC

5.9%

ROIC − WACC

+2.6 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(12)

  • Price CAGR 6.77%
  • ROIC 8.5%
  • P/B Ratio 2.00
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 11.6%
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 21.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 89% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.32
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.52
  • Net Margin Trend 10.7% vs 9.0%

不合格(6)

  • Gross Margin 14.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y -4.2%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -2.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

1.52

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Dr. Thomas Buberl Ph.D.CEO & Director52
Ms. Helen BrowneGroup General Counsel & Employee Shareholders Representative Director63
Mr. Alban de Mailly NesleGroup Chief Financial Officer55
Gregoire de MontchalinChief Accounting & Reporting Officer-
Mr. Matthieu CaillatGroup Chief Technology & AI Officer, Chief Executive Officer of AXA Group Operations-
Ms. Anu VenkataramanGroup Chief Strategy Officer & Head of Investor Relations-
Ms. Ulrike DecoeneGroup Chief Communication, Brand & Sustainability Officer-
Ms. Karima SilventDeputy General Secretary, in charge of HR, Compliance, Audit, AXA EssentiALL & GIE AXA51
Mr. Hassan El-ShabrawishiChief Executive Officer of International Markets-
Mr. Guillaume BorieGlobal Head of Finance, Strategy, Underwriting, Risk & Technology39

監査リスク

3

取締役会リスク

2

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

6

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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