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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

基本面

64

价格

$282.69

市值

$112.43B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

ADP runs the payroll, tax filing, benefits administration and HR software that other companies use to pay and manage their own employees. It also lets small and mid-sized businesses outsource their entire employment relationship to ADP through a professional employer organization: ADP becomes the legal employer of record for a client's staff, handling payroll, benefits and compliance so the client does not have to build that infrastructure itself.

盈利方式

Employer Services earns recurring fees for processing payroll and running HR software, priced mostly per employee. PEO Services bills clients for the wages, benefits and administrative fee of the worksite employees it co-employs, which makes its reported revenue much larger relative to its actual profit. A third, smaller and more volatile source is interest earned on client payroll funds ADP holds briefly before paying employees — $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025, up 16% as interest rates stayed elevated.

分部营收

Employer Services67.5%

Payroll processing, tax filing, HR software and related services sold to employers of every size, from small businesses to large multinationals.

PEO Services32.5%

Co-employment services for about 748,000 worksite employees, where ADP becomes the employer of record and handles payroll, benefits and compliance for small and mid-sized clients.

护城河

转换成本 · 宽阔

Payroll and HR software become deeply integrated with a client's time-tracking, benefits and tax-compliance processes, and switching providers risks payroll errors and compliance penalties, so clients rarely move once onboarded — fiscal 2025 client revenue retention reached 92.1%. Decades of scale also let ADP spread compliance expertise across all fifty US states and dozens of countries in a way smaller rivals struggle to match.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Employer Services revenue scales with the number of employees processed and wage growth, so it softens when hiring slows and companies shed staff in a downturn, but does not collapse the way a purely discretionary business would. The interest income on client funds is a separate, purely rate-driven swing factor: it rose with elevated interest rates in recent years and would fall if rates come down.

主要风险

  • Interest-rate sensitivity of float income — Interest earned on client funds reached $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025, up 16% as rates stayed elevated. A meaningful decline in interest rates would remove a tailwind that has boosted recent results.
  • Custody of client funds — ADP temporarily holds very large sums of client payroll money before disbursing it to employees, which creates operational, regulatory and reputational exposure if those funds are mismanaged or misappropriated.
  • Competition from newer HCM entrants — Cloud-native payroll and HR platforms compete on price and integration simplicity, particularly for smaller employers, pressuring ADP to keep modernizing legacy systems built up over decades.
  • Co-employment legal exposure — As the legal employer of record for PEO clients' worksite employees, ADP takes on joint-employer liability under labour and tax law across many jurisdictions, exposure a pure payroll processor would not have.

看多理由

Buyers point to 92%-plus client retention built on decades of payroll switching-cost economics, a PEO business that keeps growing the number of worksite employees served, and float income that has been a real tailwind while rates stayed elevated.

看空理由

Sellers note that the same float income is a two-edged sword that shrinks the moment rates fall, that cloud-native HCM rivals are undercutting legacy players on price and integration, and that the PEO co-employment model carries labour-law and liability exposure a pure payroll processor would not have.

分部数据来自2025财年信息来源: ADP Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Results

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 25.8Score: 65Market cap: $44.27B

Paychex is ADP's closest peer, selling outsourced payroll, HR administration and PEO co-employment to the same US small and mid-sized businesses, and it enlarged its mid-market overlap with ADP by acquiring Paycor in April 2025.

P/E: 24.4Score: 72Market cap: $10.32B

Paycom sells a single-database payroll and HCM platform to US mid-market employers, the same buyers ADP's Workforce Now serves, and competes deal by deal on the same payroll and time-and-attendance spend.

P/E: 31.0Score: 76Market cap: $8.14B

Paylocity competes for the same US mid-market payroll and HR-suite contracts as ADP, often reaching them through the same accountant and broker referral channels.

P/E: 62.0Score: 66Market cap: $43.81B

Workday is the main cloud HCM alternative for large and global employers, the segment ADP serves with Vantage HCM and Global Payroll, and the two compete for the same enterprise HR system-of-record budgets.

TriNet Group, Inc.TNET

TriNet is a professional employer organization competing directly with ADP TotalSource for US small businesses that outsource payroll, benefits and employment risk under a co-employment contract.

Rippling People Center, Inc.Not tracked

Rippling, still privately held, sells payroll, benefits and HR administration to US small and mid-sized companies and is one of the main platforms winning accounts away from ADP's core client base.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$21.95B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$4.41B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

-

股东权益合计

$6.03B

负债合计

$57.16B

流动比率

1.05

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

1.62

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

合理估值

公允价值

$265.72

当前价格

$282.69

安全边际

-6.4%

公允价值区间

$215.21 - $316.22

估算方法

Analyst Target:$287.27
DCF:$296.08
PE-based:$234.38
Graham Growth:$323.00
EPV:$125.16
分析师共识:持有 (8B / 13H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+0.74%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

25.87

ROE

73.2%

市净率(P/B)

18.64

P/FCF

-

毛利率

46.4%

ROIC

-

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

8.6%

ROIC − WACC

-

基本面分析标准

通过(15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.95%
  • Price CAGR 10.57%
  • Gross Margin 46.4%
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 70.2%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.9%
  • PEG Ratio 1.94
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
  • Share Dilution -1.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 20.1% vs 19.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(6)

  • P/B Ratio 18.64
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Analyst Consensus 35% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 1.1%

不可用(7)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.23

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-1.3%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Ms. Maria BlackPresident, CEO & DIrector51
Mr. Joseph DeSilva Jr.Executive VP of North America & Chief of Operations50
Mr. Michael Anthony Bonarti J.D.Chief Administrative Officer60
Mr. Sreenivasa KutamPresident of Global Product & Innovation55
Mr. Peter HadleyChief Financial Officer52
Mr. Jonathan LehbergerCorporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer52
Mr. Matthew John Keating C.F.A.Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. David Kwon J.D.Corporate VP, Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel55
Mr. David FoskettPresident of Global Sales49
Ms. Samantha OrihuelaChief Marketing Officer42

审计风险

1

董事会风险

3

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

2

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for ADP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEUTRAL
    Market Whales and Their Recent Bets on ADP Options

    Analysis of large options trades, often referred to as 'whale' activity, on Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) reveals significant, albeit complex, positioning. While specific details of the bets are not disclosed, the presence of substantial options volume suggests informed market participants are making significant directional or volatility plays. Investors should monitor these large trades for potential shifts in sentiment or upcoming price movements, though the exact implications remain unclear without further context on the specific options strategies employed.

via Markets Gazette